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The Mercedes F1 team has been a mainstay in Formula 1 since they first came into the sport in 2010. During the start of the turbo-hybrid era, they established themselves as a powerhouse, winning 8 consecutive constructor titles and 7 consecutive driver titles to boot.

It has pretty much been smooth sailing for Mercedes team and they had become the envy of other teams in F1. Then came the regulation changes prior to the 2022 season. The once infallible team appears to have taken a misstep in their development and are no longer in championship contention form.

How will they respond to this? There are rumors of staff upheavals and audible frustration coming from the drivers about the direction Mercedes is going. Will they be able to course correct and get back to championship contention? How long will that take? Is it possible in a cost cap era?

This post will cover these points and more as we take a look at a Mercedes team that was on top of the world not to long ago, now fighting to stay relevant in a new era of F1.

Before we get to that lets go over some headline news around F1.

News Around the Paddock

Below are some of the headline news going around F1.

• The FIA have altered the final DRS detection zone at the Saudi Arabian GP, moving it from just before the final turn to the main straight

• Mercedes is having a “Civil War” on the direction of their car after snappy comments from Hamilton and Wolff

• Ferrari confirm that Charles Leclerc will be taking a 10 place grid penalty in the Saudi Arabian GP

• Formula 1 will be holding the Austrian GP until 2027 after a 4-year deal was reached with the promoter

• Williams chief says that “extraordinary driver” Fernando Alonso a key factor to the success Aston Martin has had

• Williams is attempting to take charge of their own destiny as they review their current engine deal with Mercedes and evaluate other options

• Carlos Sainz says Ferrari will play a better game in Jeddah claiming that the Bahrain track is extreme in terms of tire wear

• Mercedes is saying the team is not panicking or looking for a scape goat as the team has a disappointing start to the season

• Ferrari team boss Vasseur is confident in the team and says they have “mega room” for improvement

• Christian Horner admits that promoting Gasly and Albon up too soon was unfair to them

• Helmut Marko says AlphaTauri must improve their performance as well as their finances

Now lets go over the path that led Mercedes to this point and what options they have going forward.

A Brief History of the Mercedes F1 Team

Mercedes has been in Formula 1 for much longer than the time they have actually fielded a racing team. While they had a stint in the early to mid 1900’s, their main area in F1 was as an engine supplier. They had been McLaren’s engine supplier since the 1995 season and helped Brawn GP win their solo title in F1.

This post will only be focusing on the Mercedes racing team’s history, not Mercedes’ history as a engine supplier.

The Beginnings of Something Special

Mercedes re-entered Formula 1 via the acquisitions of Brawn GP. Brawn was owned by Ross Brawn and Nick Fry, who had bought the team after Honda exited the sport in 2008. After winning the double crown in 2009, their first and only season in F1, Brawn and Fry decided to sell the team to Daimler AG and the team was promptly renamed Mercedes GP Petronas Formula One Team.

Ross Brawn was able to lure legendary driver Michael Schumacher out of retirement. Brawn and Schumacher had worked together at both Benetton and Ferrari. Brawn thought it would be the perfect statement to bring back the German driver to the German team’s first F1 appearance over 50 years. To cap it off, they brought on Nico Rosberg, another German driver, to field an all German lineup for Mercedes.

The team’s first few years in F1 were a bumpy ride. They were able to finish P4 in the constructors standings in 2010 and 2011 but were only able to score a podium 3 times in that period.

Their roots of success began in the 2012 season, where Rosberg was able to get Mercedes their first pole position and race win in the Chinese Grand Prix. While they were only able to secure 5th in the constructors, it was the most competitive car their fielded in their first 3 seasons.

The 2013 season is when the fruits of Mercedes’ labor began to show. Schumacher decided to retire from Formula 1 and Mercedes was able to bring in 2008 champion Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes was able to finish the season runner-up to Red Bull and Hamilton finished P4 in the drivers with Nico following closely in P6.

With new regulations coming in 2014, Mercedes was ready to establish themselves as one of the top teams in the sport.

The Pinnacle of Formula 1

Enter the turbo-hybrid era. The regulation changes brought in V6 Turbo-Hybrid engines to F1. Mercedes adapted to the regulation changes seamlessly. They kicked off the year by winning the Australian GP in the first race of the season. From that point on, they never looked back. They went on to win their first constructors championship in 2014 and Lewis Hamilton won the drivers championship with Nico Rosberg coming in P2.

In the 2015 and 2016 seasons, Mercedes only competition in F1 was themselves. A budding rivalry was forming between Hamilton and Rosberg. The team had an unbelievable 12 1-2 finishes in the 2015 season with Hamilton coming out on top winning his second consecutive drivers title. The team won the constructors championship by 275 points over Ferrari.

In 2016 it was Rosberg who was able to get out to a fast start, winning the first 4 races of the season. Hamilton was able to win 4 in a row later in the season. The rivalry between the two peaked when the collided together at the 2016 Spanish GP, ending both their races and oddly enough gifting Max Verstappen his first win in F1. Rosberg was able to eek out Hamilton for the title by just 5 points and Mercedes won their third constructors in a row by 297 points over Red Bull. Nico Rosberg made a shock move by announcing his retirement after the 2016 season.

From 2017-2020 is was basically the Lewis Hamilton show. The British driver won every year during this timeframe and equaled Michael Schumacher’s total of 7 WDCs. Mercedes won the constructors title every season as well after bringing in Finnish driver Valtteri Bottas. Ferrari was the primary rival to the team as they produced formidable car and had F1 legends Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikonnen driving. Ferrari proved to be no match for Mercedes as Hamilton was an unstoppable force. During this period, Hamilton had an incredible 53% win percentage in races he started.

In the 2021 season a new challenger arrived. Red Bull with Max Verstappen at the helm appeared to have closed the performance gap to Mercedes. It was a back and worth battle between the two teams all year. Hamilton and Verstappen were tied going into the final race of the season. Verstappen went on to win in dramatic and controversial fashion by passing Hamilton on the final lap of the race after a yellow flag allowed him to close up to Hamilton with fresher tires. Mercedes was still able to win the constructors championship but Hamilton’s loss stung the team.

The Dawn of a New Era in F1

Similar to the 2014 season, the 2022 season brought a set of completely overhauled regulation changes. Formula 1 was reintroducing ground effect cars to the grid, a whole different type of aerodynamic development for teams. As Mercedes knows via experience, it is critical that your team gets the regulations right. It can set you up for many years of success in Formula 1.

Unfortunately for Mercedes, they were not able to get on top of the W13, their 2022 car. The ground effect cars suffered from an issue called porpoising (aka bouncing). This happens when the bottom of the car gets too close to the ground and bottoms out. When ground effect cars bottom out, they lose a lot of downforce and the car suddenly raises up from the ground. The car then gets more airflow through the floor and gets pulled back down until it bottoms out again. Visually, it looks like the car is bouncing even though it isn’t going over any bumps.

Mercedes suffered the most bouncing out of any of the other teams. They also had a very different side pod design that didn’t allow them to make the necessary aero adjustments to get rid of the bouncing. At some tracks they looked good while at others they looked abysmal.

Mercedes ultimately finished in P3 in the constructors championship, 244 points behind the champions in Red Bull. George Russell took home P4 while Lewis Hamilton had one of his worst years in F1 taking home P6 and did not register a win.

Mercedes at a Crossroads

This brings us to where we are now. Over the off-season Mercedes decided to stick with their unique side pod design for another season despite it not yielding the results they wanted last year. They felt if they fixed the car in certain areas around the side pods they could maximize the cars potential.

Bahrain

Prior to testing in Bahrain Mercedes unveiled the W14, their 2023 contender. After a few laps in testing it was clear that the W14 had fixed the porpoising issues of its predecessor. However, Mercedes was still not able to keep the same pace as their rivals Red Bull and Ferrari. Testing is a huge question mark for teams as everyone is running different programs.

Qualifying was where we saw the true pace of the W14 compared the Red Bull and Ferrari. It was quickly apparently that once again Mercedes was not currently fielding a race winning car. George Russel and Lewis Hamilton finished qualifying in P6 and P7 respectively, a full 0.632 and 0.676 seconds off of pole sitter Max Verstappen. They even finished behind the Aston Martin driver Fernando Alonso, who came in P5. This was a gut punch to Mercedes who had hoped to close the gap to Red Bull while in reality the gap had gotten wider.

The race itself only confirmed the Mercedes woes. After a great race start where both drivers were able to get past Alonso into P5 and P6, it was clear they did not have the pace to compete with either Ferrari or Red Bull. To make matters worse, Fernando Alonso was able to run down both Mercedes drivers with some spectacular overtaking to boot. Lance Stroll, the other Aston Martin driver who was racing with broken wrists, was able to pass George Russell.

It was a head scratching start to the season for Mercedes. They wanted to be competing at the top and instead they are trying to hang on to P3 in a fight with Aston Martin. The early season disappointed has led to a lot of questions within the team on the development path going forward and some public frustration from both of their drivers.

A New Concept

Right after the first qualifying session of the season, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff came out and said that the car’s concept needed to be changed in order to be competitive this season. He said that the team needed to sit down with their engineers and decide was development direction to pursue in order to compete for wins.

He went on to say that he did not think that the team is “going to be competitive eventually.” Mercedes had plans for significant upgrades for later in the season but Toto said that it likely would not have closed the gap to their rivals.

Wolff revealed that the team is already testing a new concept in the wind tunnel. There were rumors that Mercedes had been working on a Plan B concept just in case their current one was not able to be competitive. Hamilton dismissed those rumors by saying the Plan B talk was “rubbish.”

Mercedes will likely take the route Aston Martin did last year. Aston Martin basically copied the Red Bull RB18. It got to the people where people were calling it the Green Bull. This year they took that design, expanded on it, and now it is paying dividend as they got a podium the first race of the year. Mercedes will likely try to mold their concept closer to Red Bull’s in order to quickly become competitive.

This issue with going with a new concept design in today’s F1 is the cost cap. No longer can giant teams like Mercedes get through their issues by hurling money at them. Mercedes will have to be very careful which route they choose to take as they may only get one crack at it this year. If they get it wrong it could mean another year of pain for the team.

Driver Frustration

Lewis told media that he felt the team hadn’t listen to him about the direction of the car’s development. Hamilton said, “I have driven so many cars in my life, so I know what a car needs. I know what a car doesn’t need. I think it’s really about accountability.”

Some blunt words coming from Hamilton. All of Mercedes know the car isn’t where they want it but to have their star driver come out and say that the engineers haven’t been heeding his advice is not a great look.

To compound things Hamilton’s contract is up at the end of this season. Rumors are swirling around F1 that he had dragged his feet on a new deal until he knew how competitive the car was. If this is the case it does not bode well for Mercedes as they are struggling to keep up with Red Bull and Ferrari.

George Russell has also vented his frustration after the first race of the year. He went as far as to say that Mercedes should be willing to sacrifice the first half of the season in order to become more competitive later in the year. He said he would rather make a sacrifice now to win later than to make slow progress and never end up being able to compete.

Its clear that both drivers are eager to get more out of their machines. Mercedes will need to focus all of their development on one concept to give them that. George Russel came to Mercedes to fight for wins week in and week out, not finish P5 and P6 behind the top teams.

Hamilton is used to winning at an incredible clip so last year must have been incredibly frustrating for him. It explains why he has made the comments he has and it could be why we are hearing rumors of a potential exit to Ferrari.

What Lies Ahead

Efficiency is going to be the priority for Mercedes. Not only do they need to come up with their concept quickly, it has to be a concept that will lead them to be competitive. This is why we think they will take the route Aston Martin did last season. Otherwise it may take too much time to catch up. There are more regulation changes on the horizon so they need to make the change as quickly as possible.

Will we see a competitive W14 this season? We think they will but it won’t come until late in the seasons similar to last year. Right now Mercedes looks like the 4th best team. If they dedicate all of their development to a new design they should be able to have a completely different design by the summer break. At that point we will find out if the concept they chose will work or not.

Mercedes is currently in a position that they haven’t been in since their early days in 2010 and 2011. Their successes are primarily due to other teams tripping over themselves. They will need a mighty effort to turn the tide and get back into contention. We think they have the ability to do it but they have to act now. It will be too late if they wait another year to make big changes.

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