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Today we will be sifting through how one of the most prominent names in the sport slowly faded away and is now on the outside looking in. Daniel Ricciardo is one of F1’s most popular drivers and has 8 race wins (7 with Red Bull, 1 with Mclaren) under his belt. How has a driver of his caliber fallen out of favor with every team on the paddock? We will dive into this topic and give our opinion on how Danny Ric got here and if he will be able to reunite with his winning ways.

How Did We Get Here?

It All Starts With Max

Coming into the 2017 season Daniel was Red Bull’s crown jewel. A beloved personality in the media and a very fast driver on the track. He had 4 race wins at that point and was always in the hunt for more. Max was entering his first full season at Red Bull. He was considered a wunderkind and had won the very first race he drove with Red Bull. He was still unproven and Daniel was still considered the guy.

This changed relatively quickly. Max was a wild card but his talent was undeniable. Red Bull positioned themselves behind Max to help develop him faster. Daniel probably saw the writing on the wall however he was reluctant to yield to Max. As Max improved and won more races, the tension between the two on track became more apparent. Red Bull was always going to choose Max over Daniel and this was the center of the tension.

In our opinion, Max becoming the number 1 driver at Red Bull kicked off the slow downward trend for Daniel. This is pretty obvious to see. There were numerous occasions in the 2017 and 2018 seasons where Max and Daniel butt heads. Max was coming into his own and trying to make a name for himself while Daniel felt like he was Red Bull’s main man.

The 2018 season had the biggest flareups between the two teammates. Everybody remembers the 2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Max and Daniel were racing hard and had already come into contact with each other twice during the race. On the main straight Daniel went for an extremely late lunge down the inside of turn 1 and Max moved to defend. Daniel slammed into the back of Max causing them both to DNF.

From our perspective, both were at fault in that crash. Daniel made his move way too late but Max had made two minor moves to defend. Both were reprimanded by the FIA and received a vicious tongue lashing from Christian Horner. If there were already cracks in the relationship it was spit wide open by this incident. Neither driver took the blame and there continued to be issues.

Five races later at the 2018 Austrian Grand Prix Max refused to pass Daniel for his hot lap in qualifying. On the surface, this looked like a pretty selfish move from Max however, in the French GP one race prior Max had given Daniel a tow. Max was expecting Daniel to return the favor and Daniel refused. To add salt to the wound, Max went on the win the race while Daniel had a mechanical issue and was forced to retire.

Red Bull Reliability Issues

In addition to Red Bull making Max the face of the team, Red Bull had an absurd amount of reliability issues in the 2018 season. This was Red Bull’s final year using Renault’s notoriously unreliable power unit. Daniel ended up retiring early in 8 races, double the amount of retirements his teammate had.

Daniel had an average finishing position of P4 in the races where he is not retire. Some simple math tells you that if he had finished those 8 races at his average finishing position he left 96 points on the table. That would have put him in front of Max in the drivers standings. With that being said, Max’s average finishing position was P3.5 meaning that Max was still having the better year regardless of reliability.

The tension with Max and the ongoing reliability issues forced Daniel to consider alternative options rather than resigning with Red Bull. He knew that he would never be the main guy at Red Bull as long as Max was there. He wanted to go to a team where he could be the leader. When the time came, he ultimately decided to leave the team that he had been with his entire career and try his hand at an up and coming team.

The Renault Misstep

Daniel decided to take his talents to Renault. A big step back in the eyes of most F1 fans. Renault had finished P4 in the constructors championship but they were a distant fourth at best. They trailed Red Bull by 297 points to finish 2018 season. If he wanted to win a drivers championship, there was a lot of ground that needed to be made up.

Daniel’s time at Renault got off to a rocky start both on and off the track. When he made the change to Renault he also changed his manager resulting in a lawsuit during the 2019 season. When he should have been focusing on improving the car and winning races, Daniel was embroiled in legal battles and courtrooms.

In addition to the off track issues, the reliability issues seemingly followed Daniel to Renault. He retired in 3 of the first 4 races in 2019 and ultimately did not finish 6 races throughout the season. Renault had expected to improve and get closer to competing for wins but they went backwards in the standings. They finished P5 in the constructors championship and Daniel finished the season P9, his worst finish since the 2013 season.

The following season Renault improved but it did not correlate to improvement in the constructors standings. The 2020 season was marred by the COVID-19 pandemic and there was a lot of re-shuffling to even get the season started. Renault finished P5 with 181 points. Daniel seemingly found his stride again in year 2. He finished P5 in the drivers championship with 119 points while his teammate did not crack the top 10.

Ultimately the car that Daniel had at Renault had not lived up to the hype that they sold him on when recruiting him. He was getting older, turning 31 during the 2020 season. He knew that he had to make a decision whether to stick it out at Renault possibly for the rest of his career or make one last ditch effort for a championship. There was another team making great strides and they really wanted Daniel to come on board.

That team was Mclaren.

The Mclaren Move Disappoints

This phase of Daniel’s career was the beginning of the end of his time as a driver. He was paired with Lando Norris, a young British driver with massive talent. Daniel was supposed to be a mentor to Lando and guide the team to compete for championships. That thought never materialized. Daniel could never really get the ball rolling at Mclaren.

In 2021, his first year at Mclaren, his average race finish was P8 and his highest finish through the first 11 weeks of the season was P5. Norris’s average finish that season was P6.5. There were relatively no reliability concerns but it seemed like Daniel could not figure out the car and was getting outshone by a younger driver.

His shining moment at Mclaren came at Monza in 2021. The championship leaders Max and Lewis Hamilton crashed out of the race leaving a race win wide open for the pair of Mclaren drivers. Mclaren qualified 2nd and 3rd to start the race and Daniel quickly took the lead passing Max into the turn 1. Once the leaders crashed it was up to Daniel to hang on to the win which he ultimately did. It was a huge moment for the Mclaren team as it was their first win in 170 races (Brazil 2012).

After the win Mclaren went back to being a middle of the road team. Their highest finish after Monza was P5. The win did however give them hope that they were moving in the right direction and could improve further in 2022 with the new regulations coming into affect.

Unfortunately Mclaren took a step back in 2022. They were not able to capitalize on the new regulations and ended up falling to P5 in the constructors championship with Alpine taking the best of the rest helm. Daniel did not help the teams cause as he finished P11 with a measly 37 points. To make matters worse for Daniel, Lando was able to snag the best of the rest in the drivers championship with 122 points.

The relationship between Daniel and Mclaren had soured. They were expecting a jump in performance from year 1 to year 2 and it regressed. Mclaren was looking to replace Daniel prior to the 2023 season. They decided to go with Oscar Piasti. Daniel “mutually agreed” to part ways and his future in F1 was anything but certain.

Daniel was now in limbo. He was not receiving much interest from other teams so he was faced with another decision. Taking a reserve role at a top team or sitting out of F1 completely for 2023. He had stated that he did not want to go to any back marker teams and that wherever he went he wants to compete for championships.

Coming Back Home

From what we heard his only two “real” options were reserve driver roles at Red Bull or Mercedes. Ultimately he went back to his OG team in Red Bull. As the reserve driver he will primarily be in the simulator and doing the Red Bull press tour. Daniel has said he is happy with the choice he has made and is looking forward to taking a step back from F1 this season.

What is Next for Daniel?

We think he will just play the waiting game for now. He should take the time away from the sport and really reflect if he has it in him to continue at the highest level. Ever since he left Red Bull the first time his form has fallen so he needs to regain the confidence that he once had.

In regards of Daniel returning to the grid in 2024, we really think that it is quite a longshot. Unless Daniel decides to rejoin with a lesser team and be stuck in the midfield. Most of the top teams have their drivers in place long term. I think the only current drivers he could replace on the top teams would be Lewis or Checo. Neither of them are slumping in form and Checo has his contract through the 2024 season. Lewis’s contract is up at the end of 2023 but we don’t see him retiring anytime soon and Mercedes will do anything they can to re-sign him.

Those are really the only two spots that have a small chance of opening for Daniel. Ferrari has Leclerc and Sainz and both are on form of late. Side note, Daniel has actually pushed Sainz out of the past few teams he has been on. Renault replaced Sainz with Daniel which made Sainz move to Mclaren for 2 years. Then Mclaren replaced Sainz with Daniel which caused Sainz to move to Ferrari. Additionally, Daniel being at Red Bull was a big reason why Sainz was not promoted for Torro Rosso to the main team. Sorry for the tangent just thought it would be funny if Daniel somehow managed to force Sainz out from Ferrari but that is very doubtful in our view.

Overall we love Daniel and really hope he finds his rhythm again and lands on a competitive team. He is an icon in the modern era of F1 and would be sorely missed if we don’t get to see him race again.

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Our next post will be the first in a series of deep dives into each team for their 2023 outlook. We will try to get out one a day considering we have limited time before the pre-season testing starts in late February.

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