Welcome Drivers!

This post is a continuation of the Constructor Deep Dive series we are currently working through. If you haven’t already, check out the deep dives that we have already done below.

• Williams Racing (Link)

• AlphaTauri (Link)

• Haas (Link)

• Aston Martin (Link)

• Alfa Romeo (Link)

• McLaren (Link)

• Alpine (Link) ***insert hyperlink when post goes live***

Next on the list is Mercedes, who finished 3rd in the Constructors championship in 2022.

2022 Performance

Mercedes has been at the pinnacle of Formula 1 for the entirety of the turbo hybrid era (started in 2014) with 8 constructor championships in a row along with 7 drivers championships as well. They have had a target on their back for a very long time and they inevitably took a step back in 2022.

New regulations were brought to F1 and Mercedes went with a bold “no side pods” concept that was a big contrast to what the rest of the paddock had done. Unfortunately this proved to be a misstep by Mercedes and they were unable to unlock the W13’s full performance in 2022.

Mercedes finished the season with 515 points, 39 behind Ferrari in second place. George Russell led the team with 275 points in a strong first year with Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton was not far off with 240 points in P6 of the drivers championship, his lowest finish ever in Formula 1.

Mercedes was hampered by violent porpoising as well as having a lot of drag on the straights. They were clearly behind their Red Bull and Ferrari rivals at the beginning of the season. Mercedes was able to bring a few upgrade throughout the year that made them more competitive in the back half of the year, even managing to win the Sao Paulo GP.

In the end, it proved too little too late and at that point the top two teams had pulled too far ahead. Mercedes will be looking to correct their performance woes and get off to a competitive start in 2023 with arguably the best driver lineup.

Looking Ahead to 2023

Leadership, Management & Partnerships

In addition to a disappointing 2022 season, Mercedes also lost their Chief Strategist James Vowles, who moved to become the team boss at Williams. Vowles was a long-time Mercedes employee and was considered by many as Toto Wolff’s right hand man. Wolff will be tasked with replacing a man who knows the ins and outs of the team and who was exceptional at his role.

Mercedes currently does not have a plan to replace Vowles, but Wolff will have to sort that out quickly as he has to focus more so on the development side of things rather than managerial. Last season was the first “unsuccessful” season in F1 and it will be telling how he and the team respond to being on the back foot versus fierce competition.

Mercedes management’s goal is simple and clear: get back to winning races on a regular basis and reclaim both the drivers and constructors championships from Red Bull. This is much easier said than done and they will need everyone on board to overthrow Red Bull.

Development

As stated above, Mercedes took a unique approach to the regulations and developed a “no side pods” concept. This year it appears they will have the same refined concept on their car at the start of the season however, Toto Wolff has come out and stated the side pods will have upgrades coming in the first few races of the season. Given that most of the other teams have gone the Red Bull route with their side pods, it is likely Mercedes will do the same or a hybrid version of it.

Wolff has also come out saying that the bodywork of the car may not look that different but the “DNA of the car, the architecture of the car, will change for next year.” We aren’t exactly sure what this entails but Toto seems confident that the team have identified their problem areas and are working on addressing them.

The team will have to address their two primary issues of bouncing and drag. These were the two biggest detriments of the 2022 season where Mercedes were unbalanced in the corners and slow on the straights. They will likely benefit from having increased wind tunnel time this offseason compared to Red Bull and Ferrari.

Mercedes plan on running their real car in every session this offseason. They did not do this last year, where they brought out their no side pods design in the second pre-season practice session where they found out about multiple issues. This year they want to use the car they intend to start the season with as soon as possible. That way they have a good amount of time to react to necessary changes.

We expect Mercedes to take steps in the right direction with their development and put out a competitive car. The only question is how much can they close the gap to Red Bull and Ferrari, who are both seemingly on top of their development strategies and confident in the direction of their car.

Drivers

In our opinion, Mercedes likely has the best driver line up in the grid. Last year their car was not up to snuff so they were not able to show their talent. Both drivers from last year are returning and if Mercedes is able to produce a competitive car expect both of them to be competing at the front.

Obviously, Lewis Hamilton is driver #1 at Mercedes. They would never say it publicly but everyone knows it’s true. The 7-time champion lost to his teammate last year but there is a lot of speculation that he was experimenting with his set up in an effort to maximize the car’s performance. We expect Hamilton to be right back in the mix in 2023. He is one of the best drivers of all time and if the car is there, he will be too.

George Russell joins Hamilton for his second year at Mercedes. He had a strong year in 2022 given the circumstances and even came away with Mercedes sole win of the season in Brazil. Russell has a lot of confidence in himself which is what you need when you have a teammate like Hamilton. It will be interesting to see how Russell handles himself if Mercedes is truly in title contention, a position that Russell has never really been in before.

Fortunately for Mercedes, the two British drivers get along very well and compliment each other nicely on the track. George is happy to be in a competitive car after his 3 years at Williams and Lewis will be motivated to go for his F1 record 8th drivers championship.

2023 Predictions

It is basically a toss up for the top 3 depending on how they start the season but we think Mercedes will finish P3 again. There are too many question marks around their development changes and it is difficult to predict if they will make up significant ground to Red Bull and Ferrari when they are changing so much on the car.

We do think Mercedes will be a whole lot more competitive in 2023 and will definitely be challenging for wins on a consistent basis. Their ceiling is clearly winning a championship. We have no doubt in their capacity to win. However Red Bull and Ferrari are the clear leaders to start the year until proven otherwise.

Upcoming Posts and Reader Feedback

Our next post will be a continuation of the deep dives into each team for their 2023 outlook. We will try to get out one a day considering we have limited time before the pre-season testing starts in late February.

If you like the post please subscribe to the newsletter. We try to publish 2-3 articles a week and will be doing in-depth breakdowns as the season gets going. Feel free to leave any comments or recommendations on topics you would like to be covered. Thanks for reading!