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With the first two races of the year under our belt we can begin to look at and compare how teams have fared this season vs their own pre-season expectations. We can also look at the first two races of last season and evaluate which teams have made steps in the right direction.

The outlier is obviously Aston Martin, having scored 0 points in the first two races last season to scoring 38 and currently sitting in P2. While Aston Martin may end up being the surprise of the season there is another team who most thought would be where Aston Martin is right now.

That team is none other than Ferrari. Almost everyone thought that 2023 would be a continuation of the feature matchup between Verstappen vs Leclerc we had in 2022. Unfortunately for Ferrari (and most F1 fans) that has not been the case.

Ferrari is currently on the back foot fighting the leaders from P4. It would have been a shock to anyone if you had told them at the beginning of the season that Leclerc would have less points than Lance Stroll through 2 races but that is the current reality for Ferrari.

In this post we will examine what exactly went wrong for Ferrari to start the 2023 season, how they can fix these issues, and if they have a realistic shot at competing for a championship. Lets dive in!

Where It’s Gone Wrong for Ferrari

Pre-season Expectations

Ask anyone in F1, they would have told you that Ferrari were the team to take down Red Bull in 2023. After a 2022 season that saw them finish P2 in the constructors and their primary driver finishing P2 in the drivers championship, things appeared to be trending upwards for the Maranello team.

At this point in the season last year Ferrari had a firm hold on both championships and looked to be in control of their own destiny. We all know how that played out, Ferrari suffering from reliability issues and fell behind a dominant Red Bull squad.

Despite the disappointing finish to last season, this year was supposed to be different. Reports had gotten out that Ferrari had an exceptionally fast engine (source) and that they had gotten over their reliability issues (source). They seemingly had a quiet confidence with their new team boss and looked poised to take on the reigning champs in Red Bull.

In pre-season testing Ferrari had no severe issues during the three days in Bahrain. They also appeared to be quickest in a straight line which bodes well as it makes it easier to overtake on long straights.

But with 2 races completed we have seen things somewhat unravel for the team. They are currently sitting P4 behind both Aston Martin and Mercedes, their main contender in Charles Leclerc only has 6 points to his name, and Carlos Sainz looks to have lost all feel for the new SF-23. Lets take a look at some of the major issues Ferrari is experiencing.

Reliability Issues

Reliability issues struck Ferrari very early on this season. Leclerc was forced to retire from the Bahrain GP with technical issues with the control electronics in his car. The disappointing part about this is that Lerclerc had already taken a new control electronics power unit component prior to the race. This means that Ferrari would likely have to take engine penalties earlier than expected.

Well the engine penalties came much earlier than anyone could have anticipated. Ferrari mechanics found it hard to get down to the bottom of what happened to the car in Bahrain and ultimately had to scrap the control electronics part they had just fitted. This resulted in a 10 place grid penalty for Leclerc in only the second race of the season.

For a team that was confident that they had resovled their reliability issues, this couldn’t have been a worse start to the season. Reliability issues have certainly impacted the first two races of the season and who knows how many more since it is likely that Ferrari will be taking more engine penalties than the other leading teams.

Tire Degradation/Temperature Issues

The more concerning part for Ferrari in our opinion is their issues with tire degradation. Even if Leclerc was able to finish the race in Bahrain there was a good chance he still may not have been on the podium. Carlos Sainz was clearly struggling for grip near the end of the race and was passed easily by a charging Fernando Alonso.

Ferrari was somewhat expecting tire degradation during Bahrain given that it is considered a rear-limited track but it seemed to be affecting them far greater than they other teams. During testing their lap times were fading much more quickly than those of Red Bull and Aston Martin. It bears the question how many tracks will Ferrari experience this at?

In Jeddah the following race there were virtually no concern among the teams about tire degradation. The Jeddah circuit is a very fast track that doesn’t weight on the tires nearly as much as Bahrain. However, Ferrari was still struggling getting into the right windows for the tires. They spent most of the race unable to get passed Mercedes and once Leclerc caught up to Sainz (from P12 on the grid) he was unable to get passed his teammate.

To add to Ferrari’s misery, when statistics came out after the race in Jeddah Ferrari was actually 0.7s a lap slower than their car last year. This could be due to them being stuck in dirty air for much of the race but that didn’t seem to impact their rivals much which tells us it is more a Ferrari issue than anything else.

If more tire issues surface in Australia Ferrari could have a much more serious problem on their hands. Putting the car in the correct tire window each race is critical for performance and to compete with Red Bull week in and week out they will need to be able to get their car set up properly every race.

Where Did Carlos Sainz Go?

Another big question mark for us is Carlos Sainz’s performance thus far. We have never considered him to be in the same tier has a Verstappen, Lerclerc, Hamilton or (now) Alonso but he is a solid driver who typically gets much more performance out of his car.

To start the 2023 season he has finished in P4 and P6. These aren’t terrible performances by any means but when you are racing for a title contender you would expect much more. We think that Sainz doesn’t have a very good feel for this car and that is preventing him from extracting the most out of it.

Finishing behind both Mercedes cars when starting P4 (Hamilton started P7) is unacceptable. Ferrari supposedly has the most powerful engine on the grid and that should have been very apparent on a fast, sweeping track like Jeddah.

Sainz is signed with Ferrari through the 2024 season but if they feel like they have a title winning car and he isn’t holding up his end we don’t think its unrealistic to expect the team to move away from the Spaniard earlier than that.

Where Can Ferrari Improve?

Carlos Sainz Must Be a Factor

At the end of the day we all know that Charles Leclerc is the guy at Ferrari, but in order to compete with Red Bull Sainz must step up his game. At a minimum he will have to match the level of Perez but given Red Bull’s massive advantage currently he will need to do more.

Prior to the start of the season we were very optimistic about Sainz. We are only 2 years removed from when he beat Leclerc in his first year at Ferrari during the 2021 season. He will need to find a way to recapture his form from that season if Ferrari want a realistic shot at the title.

Ferrari cannot take the fight to Red Bull with one hand behind their back. They will need both drivers at the front fighting otherwise it is a useless effort. Verstappen and Checo are competing at very high levels at the moment and Ferrari needs their #2 driver in the mix as well.

Get On Top of Reliability Earlier

We thought this would be fixed by now…. This was their main crutch last year and it seems like it will be a recurring theme this year. Fortunately for Ferrari they think they know the reason behind the failure now so hopefully it will not continue. The issue this year was vastly different than those of last year where the engine would basically explode.

Ferrari has every chance in the title fight if they can keep both drivers out of the track. While they did that in Jeddah, they were still paying the price from Bahrain. We are hopeful that this is the only major hiccup for Ferrari this season. They will need to be the most efficient team on the grid if they want to close the gap to Red Bull.

If they continue to have more issues, or if they have to turn down their engine power in order to save the engine, you can kiss the championship hopes goodbye for Ferrari this year. Not only is Red Bull too good for that but Aston Martin is extremely quick and Mercedes has proven to be the most reliable team on the grid the past 2 seasons. They need to be perfect to equal last year’s performance of P2 in the constructors.

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We will be back later this week with a post going over Aston Martin’s surprising performance at the start of this season and another famous 1 year wonder team we can compare them to!

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