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The Bahrain GP qualifying sessions lived up to the hype. All of the sessions from Q1-Q3 were much closer than anyone could have anticipated. The end result was somewhat expected but it is clear to say that the field has grown much tighter over the offseason.

Some teams met or exceeded expectations while others were very disappointing. We will go over the results of the quali sessions and give our thoughts on performance and what it means for race day.

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Lets get to the results of an epic qualifying and the first of the 2023 season!

A Fantastic Qualifying to Start the Year

Q1 Results

Q1 got started and was red flagged just as quickly as bits and pieces of carbon fiber were getting flung off of the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc. This put most teams in a tricky predicament as they were on their out laps for their initial runs, effectively using up a set of brand new soft tires.

It was clear from the restart that this year will be a lot tighter than previous years in terms of qualifying. Alonso, Verstappen, Leclerc, Stroll, Bottas and Zhou all held P1 at some point and it was Sainz ultimately topping the charts at the end for Ferrari.

McLaren got off to a rough start with Piastri finishing in P18 and Norris just barely making it out of Q1 with a time of 1:31.652. This happened to be the EXACT same time as Logan Sargeant who finished P16. Lando had set the laptime earlier therefor his lap took precedence.

Lance Stroll had his initial lap time deleted resulting in him having to use up another set of soft tires and putting him on the back foot for Q2 and Q3.

Pierre Gasly had an extremely disappointing qualifying for the Alpine team. He was unable to get himself into the top 15 and to make matters worse his lap time was deleted so he will be starting in last for the first race of the season. A very bad result for an Alpine team looking to lock in P4.

All three of the rookies in F1 were unable to make it through to Q2. Sargeant as mentioned earlier finished P16, Oscar Piastri coming next at P18 and finally Nyck de Vried in a disappointing P19 for AlphaTauri. Below are the drivers who were eliminated in Q1.

• Logan Sargeant

• Kevin Magnussen

• Oscar Piastri

• Nyck de Vries

• Pierre Gasly

Q2 Results

Q2 ended up being the tightest of all the sessions. The gap from the leader to P10 was just over a second. A few drivers and team principals made comments on just how tight it was between the top teams and the midfield. This excites us as we think this will lead to good racing all year long.

Red Bull only needed one run for each of their drivers to make it through safely to Q3. They were the only team in Q2 not to run a second hot lap. They elected to save their new soft tires for the final qualifying session.

Ferrari’s Leclerc led the way and Alonso was once again near the top of the charts. The Ferrari cars looked much stronger than they had in free practice and testing. They are right up there with Red Bull. Alonso was carrying the Aston Martin team with his teammate being slowed down by broken wrists and a used soft-tire run.

Mercedes appears to be clearly behind the Red Bull and Ferrari pace and it looks as if they will be competing with Aston Martin for P3 once Lance Stroll heals. Lewis Hamilton barely made it through to Q3 at the end. Mercedes has a large gap to fill if they want to get back to competing for championships.

Q2 was the end of the road for both of the Alfa Romeo drivers who finished in P12 and P13. They look to have the upper hand on the McLaren squad at the moment and will be hoping to capitalize on that early in the season.

Yuki Tsunoda appeared to have an issue in his car because he ended up going a second slower in the Q2 session than his Q1 attempt. Bad news for AlphaTauri as it looks like they will be battling from the back again this season.

Below are the drivers oho exited in Q2:

• Lando Norris

• Valtter Bottas

• Zhou Guanyu

• Yuki Tsunoda

• Alex Albon

Q3 Results

Q3 ended with Red Bull taking a 1-2. This wasn’t exactly a surprise as many think they are currently the best team but it was surprising just how close Ferrari, Alonso and Mercedes were.

Max Verstappen lead the way in Q3 laying down a marker on his first lap that only himself and his teammate Sergio Perez were able to top later in the session. This is good news for Red Bull as their car has usually fared better in race trim than in quali trim.

Charles Leclerc followed the Red Bull duo in P3 but it could have been higher. The Ferrari strategy team elected not to send out Leclerc for a final run and to save their brand new soft tires for the start of the race. Leclerc’s teammate Sainz finished right behind in P4.

Taking P5 was the man of the weekend, Fernando Alonso. He was lights out all weekend and it showed once again in qualifying. He was able to finish ahead of the Mercedes duo of Russell and Hamilton, as well as his teammate Stroll who came in P8.

Ocon was able to finish in P9 in a recovery effort for Alpine as Gasly is starting at the back of the grid. Nico Hulkenberg was the surprise of qualifying as the Haas driver looked very strong and was able to finish in P10.

Qualifying Takeaways: Who has the Upper Hand?

Ferrari Strategy Shenanigans

After a traumatic year for Ferrari fans surrounding strange strategy choices, the team kicks off 2023 with another unique choice. They decided not to let Leclerc run his final qualifying run, instead choosing to start the race on a brand new set of soft tires. They felt like they would not be able to top the Red Bull time and that they would be on the back foot in terms of race pace to the Red Bull.

It was an interesting choice but possibly the right one. Red Bull is very strong in race trim and Ferrari will need any advantage they can get on race day. There really is not much of difference between P1, P2 or P3 on this track due to the relative ease of overtaking here. Leclerc will be looking to capitalize on fresh tires and overtake the Red Bulls quickly.

The down side to this is if Leclerc is unable to get by the Red Bulls quickly then he effectively lost a position in the race as we think he could have qualified at least P2. Will this pay off for Ferrari? Who knows but it is yet another year of strange strategy choices from them.

A Man on Fire

Fernando Alonso put the team on his back this weekend. He had very strong practice sessions for Aston Martin and that carried over to a strong qualifying session as well. He managed to easily beat his teammate in every session and is starting ahead of both the Mercedes tomorrow.

In a best case scenario with tire degradation, we even think Alonso may be able to keep pace with the Ferraris ahead of him. He has shown his experience this weekend by proving what he can do when he has a strong car. We think if Aston can keep it up Alonso will be able to easily compete for podiums and even some potential wins.

For Aston Martin to sneak into P3 ahead of Mercedes, they will need better performances from Lance Stroll. The driver is dealing with a broken wrist but it is critical he heals so they can take the fight to Mercedes for P3.

McLaren Pain Ahead Confirmed

It may be much worse than we initially thought for McLaren. Their car just did not have it in qualifying. Their best driver Lando Norris was barely able to make it out of Q1 and their pace seems to be closer to Williams than it does to Alfa Romeo.

In our opinion McLaren is seriously wasting Lando’s talent and this is the third year in a row where their car just isn’t competitive. Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren’s driver last year, is probably somewhere out there saying I told you so. McLaren has upgrades coming in Baku but at that point it may be too late.

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We will be back tomorrow with qualifying results and how things will stack up on race day.

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